Vietnam Tapioca and Starch Annual Report 2018 & Outlook for 2019

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Vietnam Tapioca and Starch Annual Report 2018 & Outlook for 2019

Vietnam Market Analysis and Forecast Joint Stock Company is the leading provider of in-depth ANALYSES & FORECASTS on agro-commodity sectors. We would like to introduce Vietnam Tapioca and Starch Annual Report 2018 & Outlook for 2019 (scheduled to be released in Mar 2019), with detailed contents as follows:

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES IN THE REPORT        10

LIST OF TABLES IN THE REPORT          15

LIST OF DIAGRAMS IN THE REPORT    17

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   18

A. VIETNAM AND WORLD FRESH TAPIOCA ROOT SUPPLY IN 2018       20

I. WORLD FRESH TAPIOCA ROOTS SUPPLY IN 2018            20

1. World fresh tapioca root supply in 2018    20

2. Diagram of fresh tapioca root circulation in Southeast Asian countries and China           24

II. VIETNAM FRESH TAPIOCA ROOT SUPPLY IN 2018         25

1. Fresh tapioca root supply in 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 crop seasons        25

2. Supply of imported fresh tapioca roots in 2017 and 2018 31

B. VIETNAM AND WORLD TAPIOCA CHIP PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND TRADE IN 2018            34

I. WORLD      34

1. World tapioca chip consumption    34

1.1.      Tapioca chips used for ethanol industry         34

1.1.2. Thailand            36

1.2. Tapioca chips used for animal feed industry       38

2. World tapioca chip trade    40

2.1. World tapioca chip circulation diagram   40

2.2. Tapioca chip imports of China     42

2.3. Tapioca chip imports of Korea Republic 44

2.4. Tapioca chip imports and exports of Thailand     46

2.4.1. Tapioca chip exports of Thailand          46

2.4.2. Tapioca chip imports of Thailand         47

II. VIETNAM 48

1. Vietnam's tapioca chip circulation diagram            48

2.  Tapioca chip output of Vietnam in 2017-2018      49

2.1. Domestic supply  49

2.2. Import supply       50

3. Consumption           52

3.1. Consumption of livestock, poultry and fishery feed industry     52

3.2. Consumption of ethanol industry            54

4. Tapioca chip exports in 2018          57

4.1. Tapioca chip export volume and value in 2017-2018      57

4.2. Exports by market in in 2017-2018         58

4.3. Exports by port/border gate in 2017-2018           60

4.3.1. Exports by port 60

4.3.2. Cross-border exports     61

4.4. Exports by enterprise in 2017-2018         62

5. Domestic and export tapioca chip prices in 2018   65

6. Affecting factors to tapioca chip production, consumption and trade of Vietnam in 2018          70

6.1 Scale of hog herd tumbled, so the feed output of feed mills was low, reducing the demand for tapioca chips            70

6.2. Corn and wheat imports were high, reducing the tapioca demand for the livestock, poultry and fishery industry           72

6.3. China raised the duties for modified ethanol imports from the U.S. to 70% from July 06, 2018, so U.S. ethanol was no longer exported to China       75

6.5. World oil prices surged in 2018 on concern over the supply shortage when the political instability happened in some major oil producing countries            81

6.6. China released corn stocks, reducing the demand for tapioca chips       82

7. Vietnam’s tapioca chip supply – demand balance in 2018 84

C. VIETNAM AND WORLD TAPIOCA STARCH PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND TRADE IN 2018    84

I. WORLD      84

1. World tapioca starch consumption 84

II. VIETNAM 85

1. Tapioca starch output of Vietnam in 2017-2018    85

1.1. Domestic supply  85

1.2. Import supply       86

2. Consumption           87

2.1. Consumption demand of food industry  87

2.2. Consumption of tapioca starch deeply-processed industries       89

2.3. Consumption of paper industry   89

3. Tapioca starch exports in 2018       90

3.1. Tapioca starch export volume and value in 2017-2018   90

3.2. Exports by market in in 2017-2018         92

3.3. Exports by port/border gate in 2017-2018           93

3.3.1. Exports by seaway        94

3.3.2. Exports cross border     95

3.4. Exports by enterprise in 2017-2018         97

4. Domestic and export tapioca starch prices in 2017-2018   99

5. Affecting factors to tapioca starch production, consumption and trade of Vietnam in 2017        102

5.1. Domestic corn starch prices in China continued to be low in 2018, so tapioca starch became less competitive            102

5.2. China revised the policy on goods imports through cross-border channel, so tapioca starch export transactions of Vietnam encountered a lot of difficulties in 2018 and were almost frozen in November and December 2018           103

5.3. Chinese CNY devalued sharply in the second half of 2018, causing difficulties for the cross-border exports            104

5.4. Export tapioca starch prices of Thailand were revised down sharply in the second half of 2018, so Vietnamese tapioca starch became less competitive   105

6. Vietnam’s tapioca starch supply – demand balance in 2018          110

D. OUTLOOK ON VIETNAM AND WORLD TAPIOCA MARKET IN 2019   111

I. OUTLOOK ON WORLD TAPIOCA SUPPLY AND DEMAND          111

1. Outlook on world tapioca supply in 2019  111

2. Outlook on world tapioca consumption in 2019    113

II. OUTLOOK ON VIETNAM TAPIOCA SUPPLY AND DEMAND     119

1. Outlook on Vietnam tapioca supply in 2018/2019 119

2. Outlook on tapioca consumption for industries      120

2.1. Tapioca chip consumption           120

2.2. Tapioca starch consumption         121

3. Outlook on world and Vietnam tapioca prices in 2018/2019         122

4. Tapioca supply – demand balance in 2019 124

E. VIETNAM AND WORLD TAPIOCA VALUE CHAIN           126

I. TAPIOCA VALUE CHAINS OF VIETNAM AND MAJOR TAPIOCA GROWING COUNTRIES IN THE REGION            126

II. TAPIOCA PLANTING AND HARVESTING SEASONS OF SOME COUNTRIES IN ASIA         127

 

 

LIST OF FIGURES IN THE REPORT

Figure 1: World tapioca output by region in 2015-2018 (thousand tons)      20

Figure 2: Fresh tapioca root output of major tapioca growing countries in Asia in 2016-2018 (thousand tons)            21

Figure 3: Fresh tapioca root output of Thailand and Indonesia in 2014-2018 (thousand tons)         23

Figure 4: Tapioca area and output of Vietnam in 2013-2017 (thousand ha, million tons)     25

Figure 5: Top 20 provinces with highest tapioca area and output in 2016-2017 (thousand ha, thousand tons)            26

Figure 6: Proportion of fresh tapioca root output by economic zone in 2017 (%)     27

Figure 7: Tapioca yield of some provinces with high output and average yield in 2017 (tons/ha)    28

Figure 8: Tapioca planted area in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 crop season in key planting provinces (ha)     31

Figure 9: Fresh tapioca root imports of Vietnam in 2013-2018 (ton) 32

Figure 10: Fresh tapioca root imports of Vietnam by month in 2017-2018 (ton)       33

Figure 11: Fuel ethanol production and consumption in China in 2012-2018 (million liters)            36

Figure 12: Volume of tapioca, molasses and sugarcane used for manufacturing ethanol in Thailand in 2012-2018 (thousand tons)           37

Figure 13: Sugarcane output of Thailand in 2015-2019 (million liters)          38

Figure 14: Animal feed production share by region in the world in 2017 (million tons, %)  39

Figure 15: Tapioca chip imports of China in 2013-2018 (thousand tons)      43

Figure 16: Tapioca chip and pellet imports of Korea Republic in 2012-2018 (thousand tons)          45

Figure 17: Tapioca chip and pellet imports of Korea Republic by month in 2017-2018 (thousand tons)      45

Figure 18: Tapioca chip exports of Thailand by year, in 2014-2018 (thousand tons) 46

Figure 19: Tapioca chip exports of Thailand by month in 2017-2018 (thousand tons)          47

Figure 20: Tapioca chip imports of Thailand by market in 2015-2018 (thousand tons)         48

Figure 21: Tapioca chip imports of Vietnam by month in 2017-2018 (ton)   52

Figure 22: Livestock, poultry and fishery feed output of Vietnam in 2017-2018 (million tons)       53

Figure 23: World oil and ethanol prices in 2014-2018 (US$/barrel for oil price and US$/gallon for ethanol price)            55

Figure 24: Tapioca chip exports of Vietnam by year and by month in 2017-2018 (thousand tons)  57

Figure 25: Tapioca chip export volume of Vietnam to all markets in 2014-2018 and market share (thousand tons, %)        59

Figure 26: Tapioca chip exports of Vietnam to Korea Republic and China by month in 2016-2018 (ton)    59

Figure 27: Top 20 tapioca chip exporting enterprises in 2018 (ton)   63

Figure 28: Top 20 tapioca chips exporting enterprises in 2017 (ton)  63

Figure 29: Top 20 tapioca chip exporting enterprises in 2018 vs. 2017 (thousand US$)       64

Figure 30: Tapioca chip exports of enterprises by month in 2018 (thousand tons)    65

Figure 31: Prices of tapioca chips in Quy Nhon and Tay Ninh in 2016-2018 (VND/kg)      66

Figure 32: Offers for Thai and Vietnamese tapioca chips to China in 2017 - 2018 (US$/ton FOB) 70

Figure 33: Sow quantity of companies and households in Vietnam in 2016-2018 (heads)   71

Figure 34: Off-taken porker volume of Vietnam in 2016-2018 (head)          72

Figure 35: Hog selling prices in Dong Nai and Thai Binh farms (VND/kg)  72

Figure 36: Vietnam’s animal feed and material imports, 2015-2018 (thousand tons)            73

Figure 37: World corn and wheat prices, 2015-2018 (US$/ton)        73

Figure 38: Comparison on converted imported South American corn prices and selling prices at northern ports of commercial enterprises (VND/kg)  74

Figure 39: Comparison on converted imported corn prices and selling prices at southern ports of commercial enterprises (VND/kg, converted price is calculated from CNF price at port, plus tax and other expenses and then multiplied by exchange rate)   74

Figure 40: Correlation of whole-grain corn, tapioca chips and wheat at warehouses/ports in the South in 2017-2018 (VND/kg)           75

Figure 41: Ethanol exports of the U.S. to China in 2015-2018 (thousand liters)       79

Figure 42: Ethanol exports of the U.S. to Malaysia in 2015-2018 (thousand liters)  79

Figure 43: Ethanol prices in China market in 2015-2018 (CNY/ton) 81

Figure 44: World oil and ethanol prices in 2014-2018 (US$/barrel for oil price and US$/gallon for ethanol price)            82

Figure 45: Successful corn sales of China from tenders in 2017-2018 (million tons) 83

Figure 46: Domestic corn prices in China in 2017-2018 (CNY/ton)  83

Figure 47: World instant noodle consumption in 2014-2017 (million packs) 85

Figure 48: Monosodium glutamate output of Vietnam in 2011 – 2017 (thousand tons)       88

Figure 49: Sugar output of Vietnam in 2011 – 2017 (thousand tons)            89

Figure 50: Paper and carton production of Vietnam in 2012-2017 (thousand tons)  90

Figure 51: Tapioca starch exports of Vietnam in 2014-2018 (thousand tons)            90

Figure 52: Tapioca starch exports of Vietnam by month in 2017-2018 (thousand tons)       91

Figure 53: Tapioca starch exports of Vietnam to China and non-China markets in 2014-2018 (%)  92

Figure 54: Tapioca starch export shares of Vietnam by seaway and cross-border in 2015-2018 (%)            94

Figure 55: Top 20 tapioca starch exporting enterprises in 2018 (ton) 98

Figure 56: Top 20 tapioca starch exporting enterprises in 2017 (ton) 98

Figure 57: Average export starch prices to some major markets, 2015-2018 (US$/ton, CFR)          99

Figure 58: Comparison on export tapioca starch prices to China cross border and by seaway by month in 2015-2018 (US$/ton, DAF and CFR)         100

Figure 59: Fresh tapioca root prices in Tay Ninh and Phu Yen (VND/kg)    101

Figure 60: Import prices of Cambodian fresh tapioca roots to Tay Ninh's border gates in 2015-2018 (US$/ton DAF)   102

Figure 61: Domestic corn starch prices in China in 2016-2018 (CNY/ton)    103

Figure 62: US$/CNY and US$/THB exchange rates in 2015-2018   105

Figure 63: Domestic and export tapioca starch prices of Thailand in 2015-2018 (Baht/kg and US$/ton FOB)            106

Figure 64: Tapioca starch exports of Thailand by month in 2016-2017 (thousand tons)       107

Figure 65: Denatured tapioca starch exports of Thailand in 2017-2018 (hs code 35051090, thousand tons)            108

Figure 66: Export value of denatured tapioca starch of Thailand by market in first 10 months of 2018 (%)            109

Figure 67: Sugarcane, corn and rice planted areas of Thailand in 2015/2016 and 2017/2018 (thousand ha)            111

Figure 68: Fresh tapioca root output of Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand in 2016-2019 (thousand tons)   111

Figure 69: World corn price outlook in 2019 (US$/bushel)    115

Figure 70: Forecast on world wheat prices in 2018/2019 crop season (USD/bushel) 116

Figure 71: Corn production and consumption of China in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 crop seasons (million tons)            117

Figure 72: Forecast on world economic growth in 2018-2019 (%)    118

Figure 73: Forecast on world economic growth in 2019 (%) 118

Figure 74: Domestic and imported fresh tapioca root supply of Vietnam in 2017-2019 (thousand tons)     119

Figure 75: Livestock and poultry feed output in 2019 (million tons) 120

Figure 76: Global sugar production and consumption in 2016/2017 and 2018/2019 crop seasons (million tons)            121

Figure 77: Prices of tapioca chips, corn and wheat flour and rice bran in Thailand in 2017-2018 (Baht/kg) 123

 

 

LIST OF TABLES IN THE REPORT

Table 1: Fresh tapioca root output of Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Cambodia in 2017 and 2018 (thousand tons)    23

Table 2: Fresh tapioca root output by economic zone in 2017 (compared to 2016, thousand tons)  27

Table 3: Tapioca planted area by economic zone as of December 2018 (ha) 29

Table 4: Tapioca planted area in some key provinces as of the end of October 2018 (ha)     30

Table 5: Fresh tapioca root imports of Vietnam by border gate in 2016-2018 (ton)  32

Table 6: List of bio-ethanol manufacturers in China (estimated output in 2018)       35

Table 7: Animal feed output by region in the world in 2016-2017 (million tons)      39

Table 8: Top 7 countries in feed production in 017    40

Table 9: Tapioca chip imports of China in 2016-2018 (thousand tons)          43

Table 10: Tapioca chip exports of Thailand by market in 2017-2018 47

Table 11: Estimated tapioca chip production of Vietnam in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 (excluding tapioca chips imported through border gates)          50

Table 12: Tapioca chip imports of Vietnam by border gate in 2017-2018 (ton)         51

Table 13: Livestock and poultry feed output by type in 2016-2018 (million tons)    53

Table 14: Tapioca chips used for production of livestock, poultry and aquafeed in 2017-2018 (million tons)            54

Table 15: Ethanol exports of Vietnam by month in 2014-2018 (million US$)           55

Table 16: Estimated tapioca chip volume used for ethanol production of Vietnam in 2018 (ton)     56

Table 17: Vietnam’s tapioca chip value in in 2017-2018 (million US$)         58

Table 18: Tapioca exports by port in 2017-2018 (ton)            61

Table 19: Tapioca chip exports by border gate in 2017-2018 (ton)    62

Table 20: Average export tapioca chip prices to China in 2016-2018 (US$/ton CFR)          68

Table 21: Export tapioca chip prices to some major markets in 2015-2018 (US$/ton, CFR) 69

Table 22: Ethanol imports of China in 2016-2018 (liter)        76

Table 23: Ethanol import duty of China (applied for products imported from the U.S.)      78

Table 24: Tapioca chip supply-demand balance in 2017 and 2018 (ton)        84

Table 25: Tapioca starch output of Vietnam by region in 2017-2018 (ton)    86

Table 26: Vietnam’s tapioca starch import value in 2014-2018 (thousand US$)       86

Table 27: Vietnam’s tapioca starch import value by market in 2016-2018 (thousand US$)  87

Table 28: Vietnam’s tapioca starch export value in 2014-2018 (million US$)           91

Table 29: Tapioca starch exports of Vietnam to China and non-China markets in 2014-2018 (thousand tons)            92

Table 30: Tapioca starch export volume of Vietnam to top 10 markets in 2018 (thousand tons, year on year)            93

Table 31: Tapioca starch exports of Vietnam to China and non-China markets by seaway and cross-border in 2015-2018 (thousand tons)     94

Table 32: Tapioca starch exports of Vietnam by port in 2016-2018 (thousand tons) 95

Table 33: Tapioca starch exports through the border gates in 2016-2018 (thousand ton)      97

Table 34: Tapioca starch exports of Thailand by market in 2017 and market shares (compared to the same period last year, thousand tons)         107

Table 35: Vietnam’s tapioca starch supply – demand balance in 2017-2018 (ton)    110

Table 36: Global corn production and consumption (million tons)    114

Table 37: Global wheat production and consumption (million tons)  115

Table 38: Tapioca planted time of Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and China            129

 

LIST OF DIAGRAMS IN THE REPORT

Diagram 1: Diagram of fresh tapioca root circulation through cross-border channel among Southeast Asian countries and China    24

Diagram2: Circulation of tapioca chips in Southeast Asia and China through cross-border and sea way channels            42

Diagram 3: Vietnam's tapioca chip circulation diagram         49

Diagram 4: Diagram of tapioca starch exports through Northern border gates          96

Diagram5: Map of fresh tapioca root output in Southeast Asia in 2017/2018 crop season    113

Diagram6: Tapioca value chain           126

 

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