Vietnam Sugar Annual Report 2017 & Outlook for 2018

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Vietnam Sugar Annual Report 2017 & Outlook for 2018

Vietnam Market Analysis and Forecast Joint Stock Company is the leading provider of in-depth ANALYSES & FORECASTS on agro-commodity sectors. We would like to introduce Vietnam Sugar Annual Report 2017 & Outlook for 2018 (scheduled to be released in Feb 2018), with detailed contents as follows:

TABLE OF CONTENTS
 
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF BOXES
LIST OF PHOTOS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PART 1: WORLD SUGAR MARKET IN 2017
I. World sugar market in 2017
1. Sugar production, consumption and stocks
2. Exports and imports
2.1. Exports
2.2. Imports
II. Sugar supply-demand of some major sugar exporting countries
1. Brazil
1.1. Area and production
1.2. Exports
2. Thailand
2.1. Area, production and consumption
2.2. Exports
2.3. Development policy
III. Sugar supply-demand of some major importers
1. China
1.1. Area, production
1.2. Prices of cane and sugar in China
1.3. Sugar supply-demand balance in China
1.3. Trade
1.5. Sugar development policy of China
2. India
2.1. Production and consumption
2.2. Imports-exports
IV. World sugar prices in 2017
PART 2: VIETNAM SUGAR MARKET IN 2017
I. Sugarcane production in 2017
1. Cane area, yield and production in 2017
2. Sugar stocks in 2017
3. Sugar consumption and sugar prices in 2017
3.1. Sugar consumption in 2017
3.2. Sugar prices in 2017
4. Sugar exports-imports in 2017
4.1. Sugar exports in 2017
4.2. Imports
5. Domestic sugar prices by month in 2017
II. Sugar enterprises in 2017
1. Sugar production of mills in 2017
2. Auction of sugar import quota in 2017
3. Vessels carrying imported sugar and vessels shipping sugar from the South to the North in 2017
4. Sugar enterprises
III. Sugar supply-demand balance of Vietnam in 2017
IV. Sugarcane policy of Vietnam
1. Tariff quota policy
2. Policy on temporary imports of sugar for re-exports
PART 3: OUTLOOK ON SUGAR MARKET IN 2018
I. Outlook on world sugar market
1. Sugar production and consumption in 2018
2. Sugar exports and imports in 2018
II. Outlook on Vietnam sugar market.
1. Production plan for cane, sugar in 2017/2018
2. Production plan of sugar mills in 2017/18
3. Scenarios of sugar market in 2018 and outlook on sugar market by 2020
3.1. Scenario 1: Assumptions based on the slight decrease in sugar production, a downward revision in OOQ tariff and the decrease in world sugar prices and domestic prices.
3.2. Scenario 2:  Key assumptions based on the higher sugar production, a downward revision in OOQ tariff and the decrease in world sugar prices and domestic prices; and increased sugar exports to China
3.3. Sugar market is forecasted to be completely liberalized in 2020
PART 4: APPENDICES
Appendix 1: Sugarcane market highlights
Brazil: The government would continue follow the sugar policy of Thailand
India: Sugar mills proposed the Government to have a sugar import limit in case of imports
Appendix 2: Concepts and terms in the report
Appendix 3: Data on sugar production of mills in 2016/17 and their production plan in 2017/18
Appendix 4: Prices of RS at mill, 2015-2017 (VND/kg)
Appendix 5: Comparing prices of sugar through unofficial channel at Northwest border gates and prices of sugar at mill in the South, 2015-2017 (VND/kg)
Appendix 6: List of traders awarded in the tender for raw sugar quota for 2016
Appendix 7: List of enterprises awarded in the auction for refined sugar import quota for 2016
 
 
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Sugar production of some major producing markets, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Table 2: Sugar consumption of some major consuming markets, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Table 3: Sugar stocks of some markets, 2013/14-2016/17 (thousand tons)
Table 4: Sugar exports of some major markets, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Table 5: Sugar imports of some markets, 2013/14-2016/17 (thousand tons)
Table 6: Production of cane, sugar and ethanol of Brazil in 2016/17 and 2017/18 (million tons)
Table 7: Cane area and production of Thailand by year, 2015-2017
Table 8: Sugar supply-demand of Thailand, 2010/11-2016/17 (million tons)
Table 9: Area and production of material zones in China by crop year, 2014/15-2016/17
Table 10: Procurement prices of cane in key cane planting provinces of China (CNY/ton)
Table 11: Sugar supply-demand balance of China, 2015/16-2016/17 (thousand tons)
Table 12: Sugar imports of China by month, 2015-2017 (thousand tons)
Table 13: Cane area and yield by material zone in 2016/17
Table 14: Sugar prices in Vietnam market and prices of Thai smuggled sugar (in Lao Bao, Dong Ha, Southwest border, and HCMC), 8/2016-7/2017 (VND/kg)
Table 15: Results of sugar production by crop year, 2012/13-2016/17
Table 16: Cane yield, CCS, capacity, pressed cane production and sugar production of sugar mills in 2016/17
Table 17: Business results in 2016/17 of some sugar mills
Table 18: 15 out of 28 enterprises awarded to import 89,500 tons of sugar in 2017
Table 19: Statistics on some vessels carrying sugar at Saigon port, Quy Nhon port, Hai Phong port, 4/2017-12/2017
Table 20: Comparing indicators between 2017 and 2016 (thousand tons)
Table 21: Sugar supply-demand balance (thousand tons)
Table 22: Sugar import quota by type, 2015-2017 (thousand tons)
Table 23: Sugar import quota, 2015-2017
Table 24: In-quota tariff and out-of-quota tariff, 2015-2017
Table 25: Temporary imports of sugar for re-exports, 2012-2017 (thousand tons)
Table 26: World sugar supply-demand balance
Table 27: Production plan of sugar mills in 2017/18
Table 28: Design capacity, cane production and sugar production of regions
Table 29: Indicators for 2018 of scenario 1
Table 30: Indicators for 2018 of scenario 2
Table 31: Indicators for 2020
 
 
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: World sugar production and consumption, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Figure 2: World sugar stocks, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Figure 3: World sugar exports, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Figure 4: World sugar imports, 2013/14-2016/17 (thousand tons)
Figure 5: Sugar production of Brazil, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Figure 6: Sugar export volume and value of Brazil by month, 1/2016-11/2017
Figure 7: Sugar production of Thailand, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Figure 8: Sugar stocks of Thailand, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Figure 9: Sugar export volume and value of Thailand, 1/2015-04/2017
Figure 10: Wholesale prices of sugar in Kunming (China) in 2016/17 (CNY/ton)
Figure 11: Sugar prices in Kunming and sugar futures on ZCE (China) in 2017 (CNY/ton)
Figure 12: Sugar production and consumption, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Figure 13: Sugar ending stocks of China, 2013/14-2016/17 (thousand tons)
Figure 14: Sugar imports of China, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Figure 15: Sugar production and consumption of India, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Figure 16: Sugar imports-exports of India, 2013/14-2016/17 (million tons)
Figure 17: Prices of raw sugar and white sugar on New York Exchange and London Exchange by month, 01/2016-12/2017 (US$/ton)
Figure 18: Cane area, 2001/02-2017/18 (thousand ha)
Figure 19: Sugar stocks of VSSA’s mills and commercial enterprises by month, 2016-2017 (thousand tons)
Figure 20: Sugar stocks by type in 2016/17 (thousand tons)
Figure 21: Sugar stocks by region in 2016/17 (thousand tons)
Figure 22: Sugar exports of Vietnam, 2015-2017 (million US$)
Figure 23: Sugar exports of Vietnam by month, 2015-2017 (million US$)
Figure 24: Top 10 sugar export markets of Vietnam in 2017
Figure 25: Top 10 sugar export markets of Vietnam in 2016
Figure 26: Sugar imports of Vietnam, 2012-2017 (million US$)
Figure 27: Sugar imports of Vietnam by month (million US$)
Figure 28: Top 10 sugar export markets of Vietnam in 2017
Figure 29: Top 10 sugar export markets of Vietnam in 2016
Figure 30: Prices of domestic RS at mill by week in 2017 (VND/kg)
Figure 31: Prices of domestic RE at mill by week in 2017 (VND/kg)
Figure 32: Prices of domestic RAW sugar at mill by week in 2017 (VND/kg
Figure 33: Comparing prices of smuggled sugar in Southwest border area and prices of sugar at mills in the South, 2015-2017 (VND/kg)
 
 
 
LIST OF BOXES
Box 1: Smuggled sugar share accounts for about 50% in the market
Box 2: VSSA holds a conference to discuss solutions to consume sugar and deal with smuggled sugar
Box 3: Renovation and upgrading of some sugar mills in 2017
Box 4: Temporary imports of sugar for re-exports: When the ministries “kick their feet”
Box 5: Dispatch No.7362/BTC-TCHQ dated June 4, 2015 of Ministry of Finance on suspending temporary imports of sugar for re-exports through sub-border gates of Lao Cai province.
 
 
LIST OF PHOTOS
Photo 1: Sugar smuggling at Lao Bao border gate-Quang Tri
Photo 2: Phương Thành 10 vessel being discharged. Sugar is loaded onto trucks at Hai Phong port in December 2017.
Photo 3: Sugar (cont) sourced from Guangdong, China shipped to Hai Phong port in late December 2017

 

 

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